What The Heck Happened To The Mighty Detroit Red Wings?
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Two seasons ago it was the Western Conference semifinals, last season it was the Western Conference semifinals again, and late last night, after only five games, the Detroit Red Wings were unceremoniously eliminated from the Stanley Cup Playoffs for the third year in a row, this time in the first round to the Nashville Predators, and they really did not put up much of a fight.
Nashville deserved to win, as they were the better team, just the latest in a suddenly expanding list of teams that can make that claim about the Detroit Red Wings. And that’s new for the Wings.
Yes, something very, very weird is going on in Detroit, and the time is long overdue to start asking questions, like what in the world has happened to the NHL’s former model-franchise.
You see, for three or four years now, I have been beyond perplexed watching as the Detroit Red Wings’ roster aged and declined, while their General Manager, Ken Holland, who has a reputation as the NHL’s best General Manager, did practically nothing.
Allow me to take you back to where this reign of apparent apathy appeared to start, the offseason following the 2008-2009 season.
Before then, the Red Wings were the Red Wings as we’ve always thought of them, both on the ice and off. After losing to an Anaheim Ducks squad that would go on to win another Cup in 2006-2007, Ken Holland went out and signed star defenseman Brian Rafalski to a six-year, 30-million-dollar contract.
This was perfectly in line with the vintage Red Wings logic that had led them to so much success in the past: if the team is not good enough, then spend the money and make the moves necessary to improve it, immediately. If the team needs a defenseman, don’t just get any defenseman, go and sign the best defenseman, because that’s what the Red Wings always used to aspired to be, the best.
That was how hockey fans had always watched the Red Wings operate. Waking up on July 1st every offseason to find the Red Wings had snatched up your favorite free agent had become an NHL custom. The Red Wings didn’t just want to be the best like everyone else, they did everything in their power to make sure of it.
Bringing in Brian Rafalski was just the latest example of this long-running phenomenon. The last thing you would accuse them of was disinterest, frugality, or inaction.
And wouldn’t you know, after signing Brian Rafalski in the offseason, the Red Wings went on to win the Cup that very season, finishing off Sidney Crosby and the Pittsburgh Penguins in six games to clinch hockey’s holy grail.
The following offseason, Ken Holland continued working his magic on behalf of the Red Wings organization. Many hockey pundits already thought the roster was good enough to win another Cup, seeing as it had just won the last one, but did that stop the Wings from going out and getting the best talent money could buy? No way.
Ken Holland found out former-Penguins’ all-star forward Marian Hossa wanted to sign on for one year to try to win the Cup with Detroit, because back in those days Detroit was the team players always picked as having the best chance of getting them a Stanley Cup ring, and even though Hossa would prove expensive at 7.45-million-dollars (for the year) and push Detroit up against the salary cap ceiling, the Red Wings signed him anyway.
And why wouldn’t they, every hockey fan thought to themselves. It’s Detroit! Of course Hossa wanted to go there, and of course they were willing to spend the money to make it happen, because they’re the Detroit Red Wings, the kings of the NHL, the team you can always count on to spend more than anyone else (as far as the salary cap allows), spend smarter than everyone else, and in general just kick all our teams’ pedestrian asses.
The Red Wings would continue to reinforce those perceptions the next season as they made the Stanley Cup Finals for the second year in a row, succumbing to the Pittsburgh Penguins this time in seven games due only in my opinion to what looked like injuries and accumulated fatigue. But for my money, Detroit was still the best team in the NHL when healthy during the 2008-2009 season, for the second year in a row.
And while Hossa left in the offseason to sign with Chicago because Detroit did not feel they had the cap space to offer him a competitive contract, you felt the Red Wings would just retool like always, spend every last penny of the cap space they did have on the best talent available, and be back competing for the Stanley Cup in 2009-2010.
That’s when things started to get weird.
From July 1st, 2009, day one of the off-season, to this day, the biggest free agent Ken Holland has signed was Ville Leino out of the Finnish Elite League, who he later traded for a 6th round pick. Or was it Todd Bertuzzi, who scored 14 goals this season and disappears worse than any Red Wing every playoffs? Or maybe Ian White?
Three off-seasons have passed now without the Red Wings signing one single unrestricted free agent making 3-million-dollars per season or more.
In fact, the Red Wings left over seven-million-dollars in salary cap space unspent this season (I calculated that number by adding the salaries of the Red Wings’ thirteen most expensive forwards, seven most expensive defensemen, and Jimmy Howard and Joey MacDonald).
If you had told Red Wings fans last summer that their team was not going to spend to the cap ceiling this season, or even come close, they would have laughed in your face. Detroit always spends to the cap!
Yet, even though it might have been the most unpredictable scenario given Detroit’s long history of spending as much money as possible on talent, in a way it was also the most predictable. I know I personally saw it coming at the time. Something has just been weird and wrong in the Detroit Red Wings organization the past few seasons, and spending less money on players seemed like the logical next step in the fall of this franchise. The only unexpected part of the Wings offseason to me was, of the money they did spend, spending it so wrong, with a redundant no-trade clause to boot for the un-tradeable Jonathan Ericsson (I exaggerate).
The sudden reluctance to spend to the cap raises the question, are the Red Wings having some sort secret financial problems? The New York Yankees would never just stop spending money all of a sudden for no reason; I don’t think the Red Wings would, either. So what’s the reason?
It’s not just the sudden decline in spending and ambition that stands out as odd to me, either. Consider this. Aside from giving away Ville Leino to the Philadelphia Flyers for a 6th round pick, Ken Holland had not made one single significant trade for player(s) since 2009 until this season’s trade deadline, where he traded his 1st round pick for Kyle Quincey, a defenseman originally drafted by Detroit who Holland had let go for nothing four seasons earlier. Holland still has not traded for anyone who is not a former-Red-Wing and who he did not previously give away.
It almost seems like one day, Ken Holland woke up and just decided it was time to let someone else win, or that the number one priority had shifted from winning to… not.
This lack of activity in the trade market is even more curious when you consider the current state of the free agent market. Every year there are less quality unrestricted free agents due in part to the increase in long-term contracts around the NHL, so the supply is down, and the salary cap is the highest it’s been since the 2005 lockout, which means prices are higher than ever, too! This often makes the trade market not just the best option, but the only option to acquire young, high-quality talent that is actually locked into favorable contracts for the team, instead of the king’s ransom you often have to pay in free agency.
Other GMs have certainly realized this trend, such as San Jose’s Doug Wilson, who primarily used the trade market to in fact surpass the Red Wings’ on the ice, as Ken Holland utilized neither market, for the most part. Wilson’s Sharks would eliminate the Red Wings two post-seasons in a row, from 2009-2010 through 2010-2011, largely through the efforts of players acquired by trade, such as Joe Thornton, Dan Boyle, and Dany Heatley.
The question has to be asked, with the success other franchises have found in utilizing the trade market for at least part of their roster-building, why have the Detroit Red Wings shied away from it? For that matter, why have the Red Wings shied away from acquiring new impact players, period, by any means?
Generally speaking, for any NHL franchise to run smoothly, the General Manager and the Head Coach need to be on the same page and have a good, working relationship, where the coach and GM have a dialogue and come up with some ideas of tools the coach could use to win more hockey games, and the GM goes about getting him those tools.
If we go by what we see in the media, Mike Babcock and Ken Holland seem to be the model example for a productive partnership, however all the real evidence recently suggests otherwise. That doesn’t mean they don’t like each other or don’t get along, because they seem to get along just fine. But there is so much more to a productive head-coach-GM partnership than amiability. It’s about results, and if Red Wings fans feel they are not getting results from their General Manager, it might surprise them to hear that Mike Babcock seems to have similar complaints.
Let me take you back to last offseason, in May, after the Sharks had eliminated the Red Wings for the second year in a row. Mike Babcock was asked in an interview with Bill Simonson of WBBL’s Huge Show’s what he thought the Red Wings needed to add to their team in the offseason. Here are the quotes excerpted from the interview.
Bill Simonson: Mike, what do the Wings need, the most important thing that you think’s missing from making this team a Stanley Cup champion again?
Mike Babcock: We need, uh…a top-two “D,” to replace Rafalski; we need a top-six forward to give our guys opportunity, and that’s all we need. The rest, the rest we can work out through, with what we have, but we could use a top-six forward and we could use a top, a high-end “D.”
A top-two defenseman, and a top-six forward.
About three weeks later, on June 24th, 2011, a top-two defenseman was moved. He was the only top-two defenseman moved or signed by anyone the entire season.
But it wasn’t the Red Wings who acquired Mr. Brent Burns. In fact you could say it was quite the opposite. The San Jose Sharks, a team who didn’t even have a key defenseman in need of replacing like the Red Wings did with Rafalski retiring, a team that didn’t even need another top-two defenseman at all, at least they obviously didn’t need one to beat the Red Wings, acquired the juggernaut defenseman for an overrated and one-dimensional top-nine ‘tweener forward in Devin Setoguchi, a promising center prospect Charlie Coyle, and a late 1st round pick.
When Mike Babcock found out about this trade, his reaction was not one of a head coach on board with the plan of his General Manager, where instead of his Red Wings getting the only top-two defenseman available at the time (and ultimately all season), that defenseman went to the worst alternative team imaginable, the Wings’ very arch-rival that had eliminated them two years running.
“They just hit a home run,” Babock said of the Sharks. “That’s a gold medal pick. I’m pissed off.”
When a coach is asked about draft day and his response is “pissed off” as opposed to “happy,” I don’t think that means he’s pleased with his General Manager.
As a result of the Red Wings’ losing out on Burns, and later many of their first-choice unrestricted free agents such as James Wisniewski, the Red Wings would endup settling for a consolation prize in Ian White, ironically the defenseman who the Sharks were willing to cast off for nothing just to make room for Burns.
Ian White is a good complimentary defenseman, but Mike Babcock said he wanted a “top,” “high-end,” “top-two” defenseman, not a complimentary puck-mover type, and there was a reason. While White would go on to fill in adequately next to Nicklas Lidstrom during the regular season, he’s not a top-two defenseman or even a top-three, where Rafalski was when healthy, which means the Wings got worse in the tradeoff from a healthy Rafalski to White, not better.
Babcock realized this would happen if Holland only added a top-five puck-mover type of guy, which is probably why he explicitly wanted a top-two. That might explain why he was so “pissed” when he heard about the Burns trade; Ken Holland did not deliver.
Babcock’s other offseason need was a top-six forward, a need he mentioned a few more times as the offseason dragged on without Holland acquiring one, as if to remind his GM. If memory serves, Babcock also mentioned that adding one with size would be ideal.
Truth is, the Red Wings have actually needed a top-six forward since Marian Hossa and Mikael Samuelsson left three years ago and neither was replaced, which makes it all the more strange that Ken Holland still has not made much effort to fill that hole.
Ultimately, the only UFA whispers coming out of Detroit last offseason to remind us they even have a contending hockey team were reports they were interested in signing Jaromir Jagr, and had made a non-negotiable, lowball offer of around two-million-dollars. But Holland would give up on signing Jagr after being outbid by the Philadelphia Flyers mega-offer of 3.3-million-dollars for one year. That’s Jonathan Ericsson type money!
Add that to the growing list of un-“Red-Wing”-like actions, as defined in the vintage “Red Wings” sense, being taken by Ken Holland.
I mean outbidding the Red Wings used to be, if not a near impossibility, certainly a lot harder than offering a one-year contract worth less than four million dollars.
Babcock had gone on record saying he wanted another top-six forward, and as one of the smallest teams in the NHL it was obvious they needed size, but then when one who brings both elements comes along at an affordable price and a low-risk term, they let him go without fight?
And were the Red Wings so stingy with their contract offer, not wanting to raise it by possibly up to 1.5 million-dollars, because they wanted to save every dime of cap space for the trade deadline? Because they ended the season with over seven million unused dollars in cap space, and that’s not even pro-rated.
It just doesn’t make any sense. The Red Wing’s inability to replace Hossa and or Samuelsson the last three off-seasons and trade deadlines, and really what seems like some reluctance to even give it a serious try–the Jagr situation just being the latest episode of that, has to truly make you question what is happening behind the scenes in the Red Wing’s front office, that they have lost their “mojo” so badly and so suddenly.
As for the final tally at the end of last offseason, Holland did not sign or trade for a single new forward, top-six or otherwise. Not even the forward-equivalent of an Ian White. Babcock had wanted a top-two defenseman and a top-six forward, and the prize he got was a top-four-top-five undersized puck-moving type defenseman. That’s it.
Then, despite, I suspect, more requests for improved forward depth by the coach as the trade deadline approached, Ken Holland traded for another defenseman instead, and still not one single forward.
The net result was one of the Detroit’s better depth defenseman, Jakub Kindl, sitting in the press box all postseason as an extra, unneeded piece, while the team needed some pieces at forward they didn’t have because Holland refused to acquire them for his coach.
As you can imagine, Mike Babcock was not happy after what he has diagnosed as the team’s lack of depth led to their third early playoff elimination in a row, and he took what appeared to be some shots at his General Manager, however veiled, in his press conference after last night’s series-ending 2-1 defeat to the Nashville Predators. You just don’t often see any dissension within the Red Wings organization, so these comments of Babcock’s are significant.
Mike Babcock (on why the Red Wings lost the series): Their depth up front was better than our depth up front, especially their third and fourth lines. I really thought, I liked it better when they had them all on two lines, but when they put them on three lines, because they could do that, they had us in trouble big time there on the matchup … I thought Zetterberg was fantastic in this series, but when you go through and you look at our group, to me as a group of forwards, I like the depth on our backend … but I didn’t think we had enough up front, and I think it showed in our scoring … And that hurt us I thought for sure.
Translation: In other words, it’s a roster issue, on paper, ‘our forward depth is not good enough, and although I’ve tried to explain this to Ken Holland, he refuses to give me any help, and there’s nothing I can do. The forward depth is not good enough. Even “(Nashville’s) depth up front was better than our depth up front” (and Nashville, while a good offensive team, is no juggernaut at the forward position).’
More Mike Babcock (still answering same question on why they lost): “… When you lose 4-1 in a series, the series in the end, you can talk about the games all being a one goal game, to me that’s not close. 4-1’s not close.”
Translation: That just sounds a lot to me like he’s saying, ‘I know Ken Holland is going to try to spin this series like it was close because the individual games were close, just like they were the last two years San Jose eliminated us, so that he doesn’t have to change anything or make any big moves to the roster, but I want to set the record straight once and for all, it wasn’t close, the depth is not good enough, and it’s time for Kenny to wake up now and improve the roster for once.’
Also interesting is if you watch the press conference, notice how Babcock brings almost every question, whether it’s about the defense, a turnover, or what, notice how he brings every one back to the forwards at the end. He’s really trying to emphasize that point to everyone, his GM included it seems, that the forward group is not good enough and he needs more to work with there.
More Mike Babcock: “They probably have seven top-six forwards, so that gives them really good depth.”
Translation: ‘And we don’t, so we don’t.’
More Mike Babcock: “We’re not as deep as we used to be, and it’s very apparent.”
Clearly, Babcock is really trying to spell out the point and make it clear: this roster that the General Manager put together for this season is not good enough. He uses the word “deep” instead of “good,” but it amounts to the same thing in the end.
(If you want to watch Mike Babcock’s press conference for yourself in its entirety, check at the bottom of the blog.)
All in all, when you look at Babcock’s comments last offseason about what he thought needed to be added to the roster to make it a Cup contender, and then you look at Babcock’s comments tonight in the post-series interview, you can see that Babcock is making it very clear: he does not feel like he got what he asked for last summer, maybe even from before last summer.
Obviously, we don’t need Babcock to tell us that for us to know. We just need to look at the roster, look at the moves Holland made, or didn’t make, to see that Holland did not add anything coach Babcock asked for.
But what’s interesting is to hear Babcock actually say it in public. I wouldn’t say that means he’s “desperate,” but going public to the press is definitely that “next step” you take in this business when the internal asking is not working, when it’s not sending a strong enough message.
The question is why. Why cant Mike Babcock seem to get through to Ken Holland? Doesn’t Holland want to win just as much as Mike Babcock? Because if the ambition is the same, Ken Holland has never had trouble filling roster holes and putting together an elite roster before, so why now? Why have three years passed since Mikael Samuelsson and Marian Hossa left without Holland coming even close to replacing them?
It would be one thing if we were talking about a historically incompetent General Manager, but this is different, it’s almost like some sort of immediate onset of incompetence that happened after the 2008-2009 season ended in heart-breaking game-seven defeat.
That’s what makes me wonder if there isn’t something else to this. I just have a hard time believing the best-run organization in hockey can turn into one of the worst at filling its roster holes just like that, overnight. It seems more likely to me that there is some sort of intent at the heart of this to maybe save money.
In other words, I have to think, with the management team the Red Wings have, that if they actually wanted to fix the forward depth and re-stack their roster the way they did in 2007-2008 and 2008-2009, they would have found a way to do it already.
I keep going back to, I know they’re the Red Wings, but they’re still located in Detroit, and you have to wonder if the economy has hurt the team more than they let on financially. I really don’t know enough about their ownership situation and Mike Ilitch’s Little Caesars pizza company to say, other than I just don’t think the competence level of Ken Holland and the Red Wings’ management team dropped from 100 to 0 overnight. I think it’s usually not competence that drops quickly, it’s ambition and cash.
But I’m not sure of that theory, either. All I know is what’s happened in Detroit the last three years is really weird and unusual. You just don’t see huge model-franchises, like the Yankees, all of a sudden just stop. Stop spending, stop acquiring new players, stop making moves. You don’t see it. The model teams can lose, yes, everybody loses at some point, but they always lose trying.
Like the Red Sox last season. Things didn’t work out for them, but it wasn’t for lack of trying. They made the biggest free agent signing off the-season in Adrian Gonzalez, who had a great year for them; the team simply didn’t perform well as a whole. But the brass behind the team never stopped spending on talent and trying to propel the team to greatness.
And that’s what’s so strange and so different about what we’ve seen from the Red Wings the last three years. They went from one of the more active and ambitious teams in the NHL, always in the conversation about the big free agents, to being a complete ghost. They just fell off the grid completely, Again, their biggest name signings since 2008 have been Ville Leino out of Finland and Todd Bertuzzi. It’s been a complete reversal, and it’s just very strange.
One thing’s for sure, Babcock seems to be running out of patience with whatever it is that’s going on, and if Wings fans have something to be positive about, it’s that Babcock seems to be sending the right message to Ken Holland and Red Wings ownership, and he’s sending it loud and clear: your experiment of resting on your laurels, penny pinching, and leaving roster holes unfilled has failed, and it’s time for this franchise to return to the tried and true Red-Wing-way of aggressive spending and roster additions.
And I think this first round exit might finally be enough to wake Holland up from his slumber. Sometimes that’s exactly what a franchise needs, a wake-up call, and this is definitely one of those times for Holland and company. Wings fans just have to hope losing to Nashville in five games was enough to do the trick, otherwise the Wings will be in the situation at this time next season.
And whether Holland wakes in time to fix his team for next season or not, I still think it’s important to ask why he’s been asleep for so long as the helm of such a respected franchise in the first place.
(*** Update April 23, 2012, in response to some commenters: I do understand Holland faced various obstacles each of the last three seasons–not a lot of cap space in 2009-2010 and 2010-2011, and not a lot of great free agents when he finally had cap space this season, but there are always ways to make your team better, and many other GMs found ways to do just that despite facing the same obstacles Holland faced, where Holland has not. Some GMs even faced worse obstacles and flourished; just look at the Phoenix Coyotes and their internal budget.)
What do you think? Share your theories and thoughts in the comments or tweet and follow me on twitter.
That’s my analysis on the Red Winged riddle. Just a reminder, you can subscribe to the blog by entering your email in the box to the right and clicking the subscribe button. Also if you want to watch Mike Babcock’s press conference in its entirety, click the link below. Thanks for reading!
Mike Babcock Game 5 Postgame Press Conference
Written by Shark Circle
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13 2:49 pm on April 21, 2012 Permalink |
I think Holland is afraid to fail. Any long term commitment has its risk–a long term salary cap hit. Just look at Franzen. He’s already not worth his $4m cap hit, yet the Wings are still stuck with him for EIGHT more seasons, which is insane. With players looking for long-term job security (and I don’t blame them), and with young guys like Helm, Smith, and Abdelkader looking for significant raises in the near future, Holland values cap flexibility over star power. The last thing Holland wants is a NYR-Drury/Gomez/Gaborik situation. That said, adding Parise and/or Suter is an imperative for the Wings this coming offseason. Will Kenny do it? With Stuart, Quincey, Holmstrom, and Hudler (combined $11m) coming off the books, I think he’ll be looking to add at least a top-six forward.
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SharkCircle 3:06 pm on April 21, 2012 Permalink |
You make a great point. I just think I would rather take my shot at putting a great team together than go every year with an okay team, but one that’s low-risk. Zetterberg and Datsyuk are also on long-term contracts, and they are working out. Franzen’s only problem is injuries, anyway. When he’s healthy, even 75%, he’s worth his 4M cap hit. 4M does not go anywhere near as far as it used to in the NHL, that’s actually a very good cap hit for even a semi-healthy Franzen (at least in the regular season).
The other thing, though, is not every contract has to be long term and risky. You can have both cap flexibility and improve the roster. I don’t want to anger Wings fans, I’m not exactly a huge fan of the Sharks GM, but one thing he has done that Ken Holland hasn’t the last few years is improve his team through the trade market, including bringing in elite players, without really taking any risk at all contract wise. 5 year commitments are the longest he has.
That’s the downside to relying on bringing in your elite talent through free agency. The positive is you don’t have to give up any assets, and you will have more control over the cap hit, but any top player is going to want long term now. I personally think its worth it for the likes of Parise or Suter, or rather you just have to bite the bullet. No one knows what will happen 10 years from now. If you have the chance to get a player like that on your roster for next season at an affordable cap hit, you take that guarantee of something great despite the risk (which is not a guarantee) of something bad happening later on.
Overall, I think there plenty of ways to improve a team while managing risk. If Holland has truly been inactive due to fear of making a mistake, that’s just not being a good general manager. This is not a zero-risk business. Every single move has the potential to go bad. You would have to deal in only fourth liners signed to low money low term deals to completely avoid risk. I guess that’s sort of what Holland has been doing hah.
Anyway, there are ways to improve a team while managing risk, and Holland simply hasn’t done it. Even just looking at this past summer’s free agent pool, and it wasn’t the best pool, forgetting all the other trade options we never heard about, Chris Higgins signed for 3.4 million over two years in Vancouver. Even if you had to up that to 5 million over two years to get Higgins to come to Detroit, for a 2.5M cap hit, that’s still a decent deal, helps the forward depth. Michael Ryder just scored 35 goals in Dallas for 7M over 2 years. I’m pretty sure he would have picked Detroit over Dallas for the same price or less. I’m not saying Ryder is the perfect player to fit Detroit’s needs, but adding another 30 goals for a fair cap hit certainly would have been a lot better than what Holland did, which is leave that cap space completely unspent.
Benoit Pouliot is a very low-risk signing the Bruins made, with a cap hit of less than 2M I believe, he’s having a very good playoff.
Tomas Fleischmann has been very good this season. Who knows if he would have wanted to come back to Detroit, and that would have been a higher risk move.
Point is, there were a lot of options, more I haven’t mentioned, just in last summer’s free agent pool. That doesn’t count the two years before in free agency, or all the trade possibilities that we know are out there because other GMs take advantage of them, just not Holland, mostly, although I really liked the Quincey trade for Detroit (until I saw Quincey play for Detroit. Yikes!). But I have to believe he just doesn’t feel comfortable there yet. Once he does he could even be the Wings third best defenseman after Lidstrom and Kronwall (I’m not a Stuart fan).
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Primis 4:17 pm on April 21, 2012 Permalink |
Here’s the thing: by now I think Holland expected the kids to have HAD more of a chance. Babcock has not given them that and has insisted with stay older guys too long. Brendan Smith was ready this year to play 70-some games. He was not given that chance. Gustav Nyquist and probably Joakim Andersson were also ready. Tomas Tatar has been ready for a shot. This SHOULD have been the transition year fore them. Instead, none of them really played significantly, and only Cory Emmerton but even then with sparing ice-time. When guys like Dan Cleary and Todd Bertuzzi were clearly not earning or deserving their ice-time, Babcock continued to give it anyways and said to heck with the kids and their development.
I think the depth would be there if Babcock had not held back kids the past two seasons, and had given them more NHL ice-time. Babcock’s way is to deny a kid like Jakub Kindl ice-time until he’s forced to give it, and then just throw them out there and blame them when they make mistakes. And then in the playoffs, he uses the excuse of “The kids were too new” to try and play them because he didn’t play them in the regular season when he had the opportunity either.
Ken Holland gave DET the tools to reload from within. That’s even aside from signing any UFA’s and trades. Babcock’s not using them. That’s why I think if Illitch likes Babcock enough, Holland will retire this offseason along with Lidstrom and make it someone else’s problem. Maybe Jim Nill gets his shot, and he does the housecleaning and forces the kids to get their chance. DET has loads of highly-thought-of young talent in the waiting (Jarnkrok, Pullkkinen, Sheahan, Smith, Nyquist, Tatar, Emmerton, Jurco, I could go on). I can appreciate letting some of them spend 2 years or so in the AHL but after that…. they need their shot or there’s no point. The kids need their day and chance. Unless DET gets a coach that will give that chance though, it doesn’t matter who the GM is or what they do, because the coach is not using the assets correctly.
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ANON 4:27 pm on April 21, 2012 Permalink |
I think both Babcock and Holland deny the kids opportunities by signing guys like Bertuzzi to extensions and having Cleary on his contract for this long, etc. Didn’t need to bring both Eaves and Miller back. The list goes on. Holland sets Babcock up to deny the kids ice-time.
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SharkCircle 4:53 pm on April 21, 2012 Permalink |
Yeah but all the kids are undersized. The Wings need someone out there to play with some grit and muscle and go to the net, do the little things, win the battles. Not that Bertuzzi does those things. He looked so bad last postseason to me, like he lost his legs and maybe was done for good, took so many bad penalties, but then for a good portion of this season he looked faster again, and when he’s skating, he has talent. In my opinion his achilles heel is his hockey sense, he just does not seem to play intelligent hockey, which really comes back to bite his team during the playoffs, but at least during the regular season when he was skating, he did more good than bad most games I thought.
But then once again, this playoffs, he looks slow again and at best he’s a non-factor, at worse he’s a negative influence.
Cleary, I think like a lot of Red Wings players, just needs to get healthy. There were reports they were draining his knee leading up to the playoffs. Thats no good at all. You’re supposed to be healthy and rested up going into the playoffs. This is actually why I tweeted something about a month ago that got me some flack from Red Wings fans. I said that it seemed like the Red Wings had a really bad medical staff. When a Sharks player gets injured, like Mitchell with his leg or Clowe with whatever he had for the whole season, they’re out until that injury heals, and then they are never out with that injury again. Zero recurring problems with practically anyone.
Maybe the Sharks are just getting luckier, but it seems like more than coincidence at this point because it could not be more the opposite with Detroit. The Red Wings players, it’s like once one of them suffers an injury, they have it forever. Franzen is still missed some games with knee problems this season I believe even though its been two or three years since he suffered that injury and had the surgery. Cleary seems to have a recurring knee thing. The list goes on. I’m not convinced Datsyuk is ever 100% healthy, which makes what he does even more amazing. I remember he had an interview where he said he wasn’t completely healthy last offseason, but he didn’t have time to heal up fully because there were just so many things he wanted to do in the summer.
Honestly, that’s not the best attitude for the team, either. I understand the attitude, and if I were him I might feel the same way for myself and my happiness, my life enjoyment, because who wants to spend any more time than necessary focusing on an injury and rehabbing it? But from the perspective of whats best for the Red Wings, they’re playing largely healthy teams like the Sharks or Preds this year, other teams always seem to be healthier than them, and they could use Datsyuk at 100%. But that’s a topic for another day.
Thanks for the comment! Come back any time and comment on any of the blogs guys.
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SharkCircle 4:44 pm on April 21, 2012 Permalink |
Primis you make some good points, but how could Babcock ever have passed this off as a transitional year to the fans, or more importantly the veteran players (cough Lidstrom cough), when this is one of Lidstrom’s last seasons? Lidstrom came back with the understanding they would chase the cup, not to break in rookies. Smith, Emmerton, Tatar, Nyquist, you mentioned all these guys, they certainly could have gotten more ice time on the 3rd and 4th lines or Smith in the depth on defense, but none are exactly game-changers, either, not yet.
I think the fact is, this could never have been a transitional year. As long as Nicklas Lidstrom is agreeing to come back to play, and Datsyuk and Zetterberg are still in their primes, it would be a crime to have transitional years in Detroit. Every transitional year during these guys career’s is just wasting a year of some of the best players in history. I wasn’t writing the blog from the perspective of whether Holland was making the best moves to transition the youth of the team, I was writing it from the perspective of whether he was making the best moves to build a Cup winner. Unfortunately for Wings fans it didn’t really work out as either.
As for next year, I think you can hope some of these young guys will have a big impact, but I think they’re still a little ways away. All the forwards you mentioned, especially, are undersized. The league is about size now, if you wonder why I say that I explain it here https://sharkcircle.wordpress.com/2011/11/19/our-game-is-a-joke-right-now/, and the Wings’ undersized prospects are going to need to develop more physical strength while continuing to develop their skill before they can be impact NHL players, I think.
But Smith could break out at any time I think, and I really like Kindl, thought he never should have been scratched for the playoffs. The Wings have a handful of non-physical, very smart and mobile defenseman, like Lidstrom, White to an extent, etc, and a handful of physical, not-so-smart defenseman like Ericsson and Brad Stuart. Then there’s Kronwall who combines both (and Lidstrom does sort of too).
I believe that the Wings really benefitted from having another guy back there who could do both, who could stand up to the physicality that opposing teams bring on the forecheck against Detroit because of his size but without sacrificing that Detroit style game. I think Kindl’s presence and I guess the balance of his game was underrated and underappreciated by Babcock.
Overall, though, I think the prospects you mentioned could all play in the NHL, but I dont expect any of them besides possibly Tatar (havent seen him play in awhile) to make an impact. I think the Wings need to do a lot more than simply decide to play their prospects next season. You’re right, that might not be the best for each of the prospect’s development, although they can still develop very well in the AHL, but as long as Lidstrom is playing and the team is in win-now mode, it’s about what’s best for the NHL team in terms of winning, not about what’s best for each prospect. Hopefully you can achieve both, of course, but Im saying if you have to pick, you do what’s best for the team.
Thanks for the comment! If you liked the article and want to get notified when I post new blogs, you can subscribe to my blog or follow me on twitter @SharkCircle
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Hank 4:56 pm on April 21, 2012 Permalink |
I still can understand this situation, because we really had those cap problems at summer of 2009 and 2010. There wasn’t room for major moves. Last summer we had room, but the UFA-class was kind of weak. Only Brad Richards was great talent.
But at the summer of 2012, the UFA-class lokks kind of great and the Red wings will have 25 million cap space to be used. If Ken Holland now stands pat, I really start thinkin what a fuck is going on.
But I think they will press the pedal to the medal, look for “Hasek”, “Robitaille”, “Hull” and “Olausson” coming in.
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SharkCircle 5:19 pm on April 21, 2012 Permalink |
Hank,
I agree, I think you guys are really well positioned for this upcoming free agency period. If there’s ever a window for Holland to come through, this is it.
As for the last few years, I’m not saying he missed any obvious home runs, but there are always players available out there to improve your team with, and other GMs have found ways to improve the last few years while Holland simply hasn’t. And that’s why other teams have overcome the Wings. They get better, the Wings stay the same or get worse, and eventually the balance of power shifts. Holland has not even filled the hole of Mikael Samuelsson. That’s not even improving the roster or hitting a home run, it’s just replacing someone you lost, not even a star, but a 2nd line winger. It’s going on three years now and he hasn’t replaced him. I think that’s what I was writing about, it just seems strange to me. I can’t remember a time before where Holland has been this inactive, and I don’t just mean with acquiring stars, but even good depth or underrated pieces like Samuelsson was for the Wings, Holland doesn’t sign those guys anymore, or sign anyone. At least not lately, I should say, and that’s why I wrote the blog. It’s hard to explain coming from a neutral perspective, but you’re used to the Wings operating a certain way, and I do think the way Holland has stopped making moves almost entirely is very unusual.
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Dca 5:03 pm on April 21, 2012 Permalink |
Ken Holland is smarter than he is getting credit for on here.
1)With the current CBA it has become much more difficult to trade for talent. Parity rule the Western conference. That means few sellers at the deadline. The draft picks that once were expendable because you simply outspent the competition are valuable commodities. Without those assets it becomes difficult to trade for talent. Instead the strategy is to clear cap space to go after top talent unless you lose and can get a top draft pick (something the Wings even today don’t have a chance at).
2)The CBA is being bargained and Holland was given information from Detroit’s owner. That information is obviously that the cap will be lowered significantly or there will be a lockout. A lowered cap (with an amnesty buyout clause) will hit many clubs. If the cap goes down to levels of even just two years ago: watch out there’s going to be a fire-sale. If not you have enough cap space to hurt divisional teams (esp Nashville with bids on Suter and the next year Weber).
Quincey was let go because the Wings chose to keep Chelios on the team for leadership and penalty killing purposes the year they lost in the Cup finals. Meetch could play forward or defense and was more valuable as the last roster spot on THAT team. Quincey however developed quickly after being given a ten fold increase in ice time. With the Van example the previous Stanley Cup playoff year: you cannot have enough depth on defense (esp true when you have older defenseman) Holland reacquired a defenseman at the deadline. In addition it was a hedge against Lidstrom retiring the following season as Quincey could eat minutes.
AND FYI
The financial restraint isn’t the result of a problem. It is the result of the Wings maneuvering for a new arena. The 30 yr lease at Joe Louis expired 2 years ago. There is no way the Wings will get public financing. The owner is going to build one with his own money (similar to what the old Piston’s owner did). He has already acquired huge parcels of land in two locations. Properties that are dilapidated buildings in the area are now going for millions.
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SharkCircle 5:14 pm on April 21, 2012 Permalink |
Thanks for the information on the building DCA. As for the other points, I understand what you’re saying, but the fact of the matter is every other NHL GM is facing the same constraints as the Red Wings, many are facing more of them (internal budgets, etc), yet almost every other NHL GM of a contender has improved his roster more than Holland has improved his the last three seasons.
It’s too hard to make trades now? Tell that to Doug Wilson. There is only one reason the Sharks overtook the Wings and were able to beat them two postseasons in a row, and that was Doug Wilson’s trades. This team never had enough horses just based off Wilson’s drafting. Pavelski, Clowe, Couture, etc, they are good players, but alone they would not have been enough. If Wilson hadn’t traded for Thornton, Heatley, and Boyle, gotten them all very cheap, the Sharks wouldn’t have been able to beat the Wings. And Wilson keeps doing it, trading for Burns in the offseason. So even in the current league climate, its doable.
Thats why I dont let Holland off the hook for not being able to do it. If no one else could improve their rosters either in this uncertain CBA climate, I would let Holland off the hook, but other GMs have been able to.
Same goes for free agents. There weren’t good free agents available? The Panthers have gotten huge benefit from Fleischmann, Michael Ryder was great for the Stars, Radim Vrbata for the Coyotes, or smaller name guys like Benoit Pouliot and Chris Higgins were cheap UFA signings that really helped teams’ forward depth.
This is why I can’t let Holland off the hook. I’m not saying he’s an idiot or anything, far from it, but the fact of the matter is a handful of GMs have simply done better jobs improving their rosters the last three or four seasons than Holland has, and that would explain why those teams are overtaking the Wings.
Thanks for the comment!
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NHL Blog Beat – April 21, 2012. | Spectors Hockey 7:43 pm on April 21, 2012 Permalink |
[…] HOCKEY WRITERS/RED LIGHT DISTRICT/SHARK CIRCLE: Jeff Stone, Ryan Porth and “Shark Circle” offer up their analysis of the contributing factors which led to the Predators elimination […]
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Hans 8:24 pm on April 21, 2012 Permalink |
Written like a true Red Wings fan. Nice article and it touches on many points my Wingnut fans and I have debated. Holland should not get a free pass. One other thing not mentioned in the comments or your article: Ilitch Holdings also owns the Tigers who spent big pizza dough on Prince-Ton Fielder. Mike Ilitch is first and foremost a hockey-man, which makes it tough to see the team sit on $5 million or so during the season and not try to bring in any piece that might improve the team.
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dca 8:27 pm on April 21, 2012 Permalink |
I agree somewhat with what your saying about other GM facing the same situation; however, not everything is equal.
you also have to look at those GM’s job security and how some of them mortgaged the future (just like the Blackhawks did previously) to make a run at the cup now. Think of it as the anti-Yzerman Tampa reasoning (where he stock-piled future picks and still kept their core+depth players together). The Wings don’t mortgage their futures to win now. They are patient with player development and often over-ripen players in the AHL that’s why they’ve made 21 straight playoff appearances.
2ndly, the Wings don’t pick as high as some of these other teams to reload (or have trade-able assets to do so) so easily–so again it’s not an equal playing field.
Being frank Wilson is one of those GM’s.
San Jose gave up it’s 1st round picks in 2011, 2009, and 2008. In 2007 they had a top 9 pick to get a talented player (Couture). In 2005 it was a top 8 pick to get Setoguchi. It was a top 6 pick in 2003 since that was the year he was hired not sure you can hold that pick against him (Milan Michalek). But that is where they have the assets to trade from and build a team all things are not equal.
One of the names you mention is Thornton who came from Boston. Boston used the financial flexibility and leadership change from that trade to win the Cup (SJ hasn’t done that and could/will be in real trouble if the Cap is decreased significantly), but in short that trade wasn’t strictly a hockey deal. Heatley killed someone and was traded then became a cancer in that locker-room and was traded again in a non-hockey type deal too. Boyle was also a trade that was made for beyond hockey reasons–it allowed the Lightning to resign their franchise player.
All those deals were smart for SJ, but they have little to show for it as of yet. That speaks to their GM not targeting the right role players. Like I said their cap situation is going to be an issue going forward. They remind me of Chicago the year after it won the Cup by spending over the cap and having their next year’s cap docked by 5M.
Nashville is a similar in that it is one of those teams that mortgaged their future to win now. They have a good reason to do so. They have very little time left with (Radulov), Suter and Weber given their future contracts. The paid a high price to acquire 3 rental players. Their 1st-Round Pick (2012) for a faceoff specialist in Paul Gaustad. Their 2nd-Round Pick (2013) for Andrei Kostitsyn. Hal Gill for their 2nd-Round Pick (2013) and a prospect that just hit the NHL level. Those are some heavy prospects they are going to be missing going forward.
Your point on free agents is kind-of a similar biased argument:
Free agents don’t always go to the highest bidder or best chance to win the cup. Hossa signing with the Wings is the best example of that. So I can’t fault them for not getting some of the top guys. Despite what everyone thinks hockey players can care more about $ than a chance to win the cup. The contract structures some of these players got would never fly on the Wings or other top teams.
Fleischmann was given 4.5M and a full NMC that is an example of a move by a desperate GM (and oddly enough reminds me of the Blackhawks over paying for Brian Campbell and Khabibulin to get people to fill the seats that bites him a few years down the road). Ryder was a great move. Vrbata was given a NMC contract again an issue.
Beyond the contract structures: the Wings bet on Hudler greatly improving (based on his KHL conditioning going away) and Filppula breaking out. They had forward depth at that time (Eaves wasn’t concussed, Helm was also healthy). It was the Wings depth at forward particularly on that 3rd line that carried them the 1st half of the year. However the inability to grab a top 6 guy at the trade deadline is a very fair criticism. The Wings did go out and got the smaller name guys White, Commodore, and Conklin. White had a career year–essentially matching Rafalski for 1/2 the price.
Thanks for reading my comment, but I think Holland is one of the best GM’s in the business. The Wings last 4 seasons includes a Stanley Cup Finals appearance–not many of those other GM’s can say the same. The next year they were able to get to the 2nd round of the playoffs despite losing a 40 goal scorer and a 20 goal scorer (Hossa and Samuelsson) and having to move to a rookie goaltender. The following year they went down 0-3 to SJ and forced a game 7. San Jose is a Western Conf powerhouse as was Nashville this year.
The CBA again will be an issue this off-season. Will GM’s go crazy only to have to release top players through buyouts later this fall? Those GM’s with little job security could be a large issue for the handful of GMs that are considered top-notch.
PS Ilitch is above all a baseball guy (having been a minor league washout). Baseball doesn’t have a hard cap so it’s not the same. Prince’s contract also brought in more money through season ticket and higher ratings…the Wings don’t have much room to grow on either of those areas. It’s not the same business model.
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SharkCircle 12:41 am on April 22, 2012 Permalink |
I don’t think Doug Wilson inherited most of those high draft picks. He saw the value in trading up in the 1st round, something Holland never does, and Wilson has reaped the benefits. It goes back to the same point, there are plenty of things one can do to improve the team, plenty of creative ways, and the Red Wings having a 1st round pick that’s usually 2 picks behind the Sharks is not something that I think is enough of an excuse to explain why Holland has been unable to improve the team.
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Ryan Seppala 12:32 am on April 22, 2012 Permalink |
It sure isn’t money!!Ole Mikey owns a casino!!That is a license to print cash!!I think his worth is around 2.8 billion,so I’d have to say it all rests with the front office!PULL UR HEAD OUT UR BUM KENNY and get this train back on the rails!!I hope to see Sutter/Parise here come next season!!
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Jay 4:09 pm on April 23, 2012 Permalink |
dude worry about your underachieving sharks. Wings have not had a top 15 pick in the last decade and a half have won in that time. Sharks have not made it past the conference when they have been picked to win it all. I will watch what my team does in the summer and not worry about my GM. He has had his success. NHL is set up to reward failure….I guess the Wings need to tank a few seasons and MISS the playoffs.
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SharkCircle 8:24 pm on April 23, 2012 Permalink |
Jay, I’m a hockey fan and an NHL blogger before anything else. I write about interesting stories around the NHL, interesting angles, and I think what’s happened to the Red Wings the last three seasons is definitely interesting.
I don’t know why, instead of addressing any of the points I made in the blog or giving your own opinion on it, you criticized the Sharks, a team I share no affiliations with.
And I agree about this summer, I expect Holland to awake from his slumber. But that doesn’t explain why he was asleep the last three seasons, unless it’s really as simple as he was waiting for a summer like this next one with a lot of big-name free agents and cap room.
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Jay 12:39 pm on April 24, 2012 Permalink |
Sorry I have to admit I only made it half way down the ariticle a friend sent me the link & I assumed it was a hatchett job by a Sharks writer to which I am thinking really the Sharks are out also/
You have some valid points and I apologise for not reading this through.
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SharkCircle 10:27 pm on April 24, 2012 Permalink |
No problem at all Jay and I appreciate your honesty, rare these days. Its a long article, that’s sort of my writing style but I understand it’s not for everyone. And you’re not the first one to react this way, even though this article has gotten mostly positive response from Wings fans, it’s still “I can’t believe a Sharks writer/fan could write this well about the wings.” Unfortunately I think thats unavoidable when my blog is called Shark Circle and it’s obnoxiously teal, I will be seen as a Sharks writer instead of just a writer about hockey.
But I appreciate the apology and come back any time.
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Ray 4:16 pm on April 23, 2012 Permalink |
This is a pretty interesting article. I’m a Wings fan and I live in the Metro-Detroit area. On the topic of whether or not the Wings are in financial troubles of some sort, I don’t think it is the case, because Illitch seems to not have a problem spending money on the Tigers, and Little Caesars is pretty much rolling deep bankroll wise. So, again, I don’t think it is money. However, there may be some reluctance in Holland, towards both his own failure that could result from a faulty roster move and the Salary cap that makes it harder to correct those faults. I’m not sure, but Holland might not be so intuned with the way the CBA effects the game as we previously thought he was. Because, even though I love Bertuzzi, he’s a good locker room presence for the kids, it just seems like he puts way too much stock in certain players that really have not proved themselves up to scratch. Franzen’s contract, immediately after the fervor that surrounded it had died down, we realized that we would be saddled with a 29 year old inconsitent forward, who vocally despises the regular season, and seems to only care about the playoffs, for the next 11 years (now 8 years) for just under 4 million dollars.
It would’ve been a steal, I think, if Franzen had actually performed the way we thought he would, but he is injury-prone. Holland, in the local press, has made excuse after excuse about this team, and his most famous excuse is the one of “biding time”. And this offseason is definitely the time, more so than waiting another season or two, so that we fall out of contention completely, and Babcock goes onto greener pastures.
Also, the prospects/youth of the Red Wings depth not being used is not even fair to be levied onto Babcock’s shoulders. He does not control roster moves. He is given the pieces that he is given, and he must use them to the best of his abilities. Bertuzzi is not a top six forward. Cleary is not a top six forward. And arguably, we have depth that could fill those positions that they hold (i.e., Nyquist, Brunnstrum, Tatar, Andersson, etc.).
Holland will learn, I think. Or it won’t be long before Nill takes over. Also, another big issue is that of Nick Lidstrom’s seemingly neverending offseason retirement-pondering session that takes longer than it needs to. Nick knows that he realistically could go for a couple more seasons, he is an athletic phenom, but for whatever reason, we have to play this game with him. I’m sorry, but the future of the team must not be contingent on 40-somethings, even if they were the best defenseman outside of Orr. Either you come back, or you don’t. Please make up your mind so that we can plan meticulously next year’s Cup Contender.
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SharkCircle 8:38 pm on April 23, 2012 Permalink |
Great points Ray. I’m sure it would be ideal if Lidstrom decided right away, but you kind of have to do it his way, whatever it takes to get him back, otherwise Holland is really in trouble. He couldn’t replace Samuelsson so how is he going to replace Lidstrom? Luckily Suter and Weber may be available this offseason so Holland would have an opportunity.
Great points. Like I wrote in the blog, Holland’s inactivity has just seemed unusual to me when you consider this is the NHL’s model franchise, and you would never see inactivity like that from the model franchises of other leagues like the Yankees in baseball. I understand there is no cap in baseball and that’s a big difference, but still. Isn’t there a cap in the NBA though? You would never see this from the Lakers, either. This year might be the one exception, I don’t follow basketball that much, but they at least tried to acquire Chris Paul and almost did. So once again they went after the best player available, and hard, like every model franchise in every sport does, like the Red Wings used to. So why don’t they anymore? That’s what’s unusual.
Franzen, he was good a couple years back, I think he’s had problems not just with injuries, but with adjusting to the tight-checking style of the game. A lot of skill players have had problems with that. Franzen used to stickhandle by people and score these incredible goals, especially in the playoffs, but there just isn’t room on the ice to play like that anymore, and he seems lost. I wrote an article about that phenomenon, why the league is so tight, here if you’re interested more in what I mean. https://sharkcircle.wordpress.com/2011/11/19/our-game-is-a-joke-right-now/
Thanks for the comment Ray.
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Rob C. 2:30 pm on April 24, 2012 Permalink |
You provide a lot of valid points and it has been strange to see, but I think one of the things that the Wings management feels is that they want to sign their own contracts, especially in a salary cap era. There’s no denying that a lot of organizations sign guys to some awful contracts and trading for them can handcuff you for years. There were a lot of people in Detroit who wanted Nash, but I wouldn’t touch him. His contract is simply too much. The way the Wings seem to think is to make a splash in free agency where you have control over the negotiations. I was disappointed like many others when we didn’t sign a marquee FA this past season, but when I saw the amounts of money being thrown at some guys I was happy. White though not a legit #2 DMan, is a solid top 4 guy who we got at a bargain and was a pleasant surprise this season. The Wings almost have a #2 by platoon in which Kronwall, Stuart, and White all have the capability to play there.
Another part of me thinks that the entire organization knew this may be a down year for the team and that they will have to make a big splash this summer (Parise or Suter). Both of them would be a cannonball splash, but that doesn’t seem likely. There wasn’t really a player available at the deadline that was going to make this team a contender. They were good, but it was obvious it wasn’t happening this year, so there wasn’t a point in trading prospects. I will admit the trading of Quincey for a first rounder was perplexing. Even more so after how he performed this season.
With that said if we sit on our hands this year again I will have alarms going off left and right. We are certainly spoiled as Wings fans and I don’t expect a Cup every year, but I do expect better than what we have gotten over the past few seasons. With the team eliminated July 1 can’t come soon enough.
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Jon 5:54 am on April 25, 2012 Permalink |
Wings Fan, great post. Just a note that you might not have noticed.
Addressing $7M Left in Cap Space: Ilitch owns Little Ceasars, a realty company, the Detroit Tigers, and the Wings. The Tigers did pretty damn well knocking off the yankee, then losing to the the rangers in the playoffs last year. This year, with an already stacked line-up, they made a pretty big 1yr deal for the slugger Delmon Young for ….. you guessed it $6.75M. So one might bring up the question that Holland had the word from Illitch that he wants a World Series Championship, and that the Wings can’t spend that $7M because this is “the Tiger’s” year. Logical? Yes. Why would Illitch do this? I think you nailed it when referring to the Wings getting hit financially. Detroit yada, yada, recession, yada, deteriorating manufacturing, etc. these fans aren’t shelling out money for those new jerseys and the Joe’s season ticketholders are declining. But with the Tiger’s making runs in the playoffs, I am seeing people all over the state buy anything Tigers affiliated. Might just be all business I’m afraid.
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